Early Decisions Are the Hardest to Unwind

Across complex projects and transactions, a recurring pattern is that some of the decisions with the greatest influence on the eventual outcome are made long before procurement begins. 

At the outset, those decisions rarely appear particularly significant. A delivery model is selected, assumptions are made about timing and risk, and stakeholders begin aligning around a preferred approach. Most of these decisions are reasonable based on the information available at the time. 

The challenge is that projects quickly begin to organise themselves around those assumptions. 

What tends to happen in practice is that momentum takes over. Governance structures are established, budgets are allocated, delivery plans are developed and expectations become embedded. Before long, a particular path starts to feel fixed. 

The issue is rarely that the original assumptions were obviously wrong. More often, the issue is that they were never properly tested before the project became committed to a particular direction. 

As delivery progresses, changing course becomes increasingly difficult. Revisiting earlier decisions may require additional approvals, revised stakeholder expectations and changes to timelines that teams have already started working towards. Understandably, many organisations become reluctant to challenge assumptions once momentum has built. 

Yet some of the most expensive decisions are the ones that are never revisited. 

This is where early legal and commercial judgement can have a disproportionate impact. The value is not in having all the answers at the outset. It comes from asking the questions that might otherwise go unasked. 

Has the delivery model been properly tested? Does the proposed risk allocation reflect market reality? Are stakeholders aligned on what success actually looks like? What happens if key assumptions prove incorrect six or twelve months into delivery? 

Many of the issues that emerge later during procurement, negotiation and project delivery can often be traced back to assumptions that were accepted early and never challenged. 

Projects rarely succeed or fail because of a single event. 

More often, outcomes are shaped by a series of early decisions that gradually become difficult to unwind. 

That is why some of the most important project work occurs before procurement begins.